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Population estimates are rounded to thousands. Percentages are calculated from unrounded numbers. The projections presented in this report are the medium figures in a range of three scenarios — high, medium and low — generated from models commonly used by demographers around the world to forecast changes in population size and composition. The models follow what is known as the cohort-component method, which starts with a baseline population in this case, the current number of Muslims in each country divided into groups, or cohorts, by age and sex.
Each cohort is projected into the future by adding likely gains — new births and immigrants — and subtracting likely losses — deaths and emigrants. For more details, see the Full Report and Methodology. However, the sources for appear to have substantially understated the actual number of Muslims in Angola, Cyprus, France, Gabon, Mozambique and Ukraine, while substantially overstating the number in Colombia, Georgia, Mongolia, Panama, Taiwan and Vietnam.
These likely undercounts and overcounts should be taken into consideration when looking at growth rates, particularly in the affected countries. The number of Muslims in Vietnam, for example, may not have dropped from to and then climbed rapidly from to ; rather, the figure was probably too high an estimate, and the figure may have been too low. These problems in the historical data are a reminder that new censuses and surveys sometimes contradict older ones.
For example, as this report went to press, Kazakhstan released the results of its census, which found that Muslims make up The increase appears to be due primarily to emigration of ethnic Russians and other traditionally non-Muslim groups from the country during the past decade as well as to the general trend, following the collapse of the Soviet Union, of fewer people in former Soviet republics identifying as nonreligious.
